Background

• In India, wheat is primarily grown in the northwestern parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains. Primary producers include the States of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. 
• Wheat needs a cooler season to grow, and the crop is usually sown between October and December. It is harvested between February and April in the rabi crop season.
• The Agriculture Ministry is aiming for a record wheat production of 115 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 crop year (July-June), the report added.
• The Indian government set a wheat procurement target of 30 million tonnes for the 2025-2026 rabi marketing season.
• February 2025 was the warmest February in 124 years. The India Meteorological Department has already raised an alarm for March 2025, saying that the month will experience above normal temperatures and more than the usual number of days with heat waves. 
• The period coincides with the beginning of India’s wheat harvest season, and extreme heat poses a grave threat for the country’s second-most consumed crop, after rice.

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production

• • Reduced Grain Yield and Quality: High temperatures during critical growth stages ( like grain-filling period) result in lighter grains with lower starch accumulation, reducing overall yield.
    • Heat stress leads to higher protein content but lower starch levels, affecting the grain’s quality and milling characteristics.

• The grain-filling period is the critical stage in cereal crops like wheat, following flowering, when the plant transfers nutrients and carbohydrates to the developing grains.

• Shortened Growth Period: Elevated temperatures cause early flowering and faster ripening, leading to a shorter grain-filling period and underdeveloped grains.
• Increased Susceptibility to Heat Stress: Growth stages such as anthesis (flowering) are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, significantly reducing grain formation and size.
• Delayed Crop Cycles: A warmer Indian Ocean alters the monsoon cycle, delaying the kharif season, which in turn delays the sowing of rabi crops like wheat. This causes wheat maturation to coincide with early heat waves.
• Lower Market Prices: Reduced grain weight and quality result in lower market prices for farmers, directly impacting their income.
• Overuse of Agricultural Inputs: Farmers may resort to excessive use of fertilizers, fungicides, and other inputs in an attempt to counteract the effects of heat stress, leading to increased costs and environmental degradation.
• Food Security Risks: Reduced wheat production threatens the food supply, increasing dependence on imports and raising food prices, affecting low-income populations.
• Increased Crop Losses: Higher temperatures accelerate evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture and further diminishing crop productivity.
• Need for Adaptation and Mitigation Measures: Farmers are forced to adapt through early sowing, use of heat-tolerant wheat varieties, and other management practices. However, access to resilient crop varieties and updated weather information remains limited.
• Policy and Financial Strain: Governments may need to provide compensation, crop insurance, and financial support to farmers facing losses due to heat stress, adding pressure on resources and budgets.

Way Forward

• Development and Promotion of Climate-Resilient Varieties: Investments should be done  in breeding and distributing heat-tolerant, drought-resistant wheat varieties with shorter growth cycles to withstand rising temperatures and ensure stable yields.
• Improved Agricultural Practices and Resource Management: Government can take steps like promoting early sowing, efficient irrigation methods like drip and sprinkler systems, and precision farming technologies to optimize water and nutrient use while reducing heat stress impacts.
  • Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) can work to strengthen real-time weather forecasting and provide timely advisories to farmers for informed decision-making, ensuring better preparedness against heat stress.
• Strengthened Policy Support and Farmer Assistance: Government can increase the use of adaptive policies like crop insurance schemes, financial support, real-time weather advisories, and farmer training programs to enhance resilience and ensure food security.