Background:

• 2024 has seen a significant shift in Pakistan’s proxy war tactics, moving the focus from Kashmir to a strategically vital zone in Jammu. 
• This area, extending from Poonch to Kathua and encompassing the mountainous tracts of the Pir Panjal South to the Kishtwar range, has become a new hotspot for terrorist activities. 
• Pakistan’s actions aim on reviving terrorism and fomenting antipathy against the Indian state in this region, which has seen a chain of attacks over the last two years

Reasons for increasing terror attacks in Jammu:

• Strategic Shift by Pakistan Post-2019: After the abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan’s relevance in Kashmir diminished, prompting it to shift focus to the Jammu region to regain influence and maintain momentum in its proxy war.
• Geographical Advantage: The terrain of the Jammu region, including jungles, heights, and rocky areas of the Pir Panjal and Kishtwar range, offers numerous hideouts for terrorists. 
  • These areas are also in close proximity to the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border (IB), facilitating easier infiltration and exfiltration compared to the more monitored urban and village areas of Kashmir.
• Support System: There is a basic support system in place within the region, likely involving paid over-ground workers (OGWs) who help stock hideouts and provide sustenance to terrorists, aiding their operations.
• Intelligence Gaps: The build-up of terrorist strength in Jammu division hideouts has largely gone unnoticed due to gaps in the intelligence grid, making it difficult for security forces to preempt and counter these threats effectively.
• Infiltration Tactics: A trickle of infiltration over an extended period has allowed terrorists to gradually accumulate strength without attracting significant attention from security forces.
• Comparison with Kashmir: Unlike the approaches to hideouts in Kashmir, which have become difficult to maintain due to successful counter-terrorism efforts and operations against terror funding by agencies like the NIA, the Jammu region remains relatively easier for terrorists to operate in.
• Political Aims of Pakistan: Pakistan aims to reactivate its proxy war in all of J&K to stay relevant and disrupt the impending assembly elections in the region, thereby destabilising the political environment and creating conditions unfavourable for electoral processes.

Measures to reduce terror incidents in Jammu region:

• • Strengthen Intelligence Networks: Refurbish intelligence networks and integrate the Special Operations Group (SOG) with Rashtriya Rifles (RR) to leverage their strengths.
    • SOG is the special anti insurgency force of the Jammu and Kashmir Police.
    • Rashtriya Rifles is the world’s largest counter-insurgency force, with around 70,000 personnel deputed from the army’s various units. It operates in different areas of Jammu and Kashmir.
  • Enhance Military Operations: Revisit unit drills, sub-tactical operations, and large-scale operations to disrupt terrorist logistics, similar to Operation Sarp Vinash(a successful anti-terrorist operation from the early 2000s).
  • Foster Community Relations: Establish and reiterate a sound relationship with the local populace to garner support for counter-terrorism efforts.
  • Deploy Adequate Troops: Ensure additional troops are deployed efficiently to strengthen the security grid and prevent infiltration.

• Political Participation: Conducting elections for the legislature of Jammu and Kashmir, despite security challenges, can contribute to restoring normalcy. The historically high percentage of polling during the Union Parliamentary elections 2024 is a good sign to start with.

Conclusion:

• Without significant punitive measures and a new counter-terror strategy against Pakistan, the escalation of its terrorist activities within J&K is inevitable. 
• It is necessary that the security agencies gather the support of local communities to undertake carefully planned operations to dismantle terrorist networks, restore peace, and reinforce social cohesion in this strategically vital region.