• According to the Agriculture Ministry, India’s production of cereal grains has gone up over 1.5 times in the last two decades.
• But a rising share of that is going not for direct human consumption, but for use in processed form (as bread, biscuits, cakes, noodles, vermicelli, flakes, pizza base, etc) or for making animal feed, starch, potable liquor and ethanol fuel. This is evidenced by data from official Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys (HCES).

• The recent HCES report reveals a steady decline in the quantity of cereals consumed by an average person per month – from 12.72 kg to 9.61 kg in rural and from 10.42 kg to 8.05 kg in urban India – between 1999-2000 and 2022-23.
• Though the direct household consumption has stagnated or even dipped, production has significantly increased from 196.4 mt in 1999-2000 to 303.6 mt in 2022-23. 

Where is the excess production going?

• Part of it is getting exported. In 2021-22 (April-March), India shipped out a record 32.3 mt of cereals.
• A second source of difference would be cereals consumed by households in processed form – bread, biscuits, noodles, etc.
• A third source is cereal grain used for manufacture of feed or industrial starch.

Sources

• https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/how-demand-for-cereals-in-india-is-changing-9407572/
• https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Factsheet_HCES_2022-23.pdf