Background:

• In February 2021, when the Myanmar military leaders ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, they anticipated a resistance movement that would subside in a few months. 
• Three years later, the opposition to military rule gains in strength. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Forces control many towns in different parts of the country. 
• In January 2024, the Arakan Army captured Paletwa in the Chin State which lies on Myanmar’s western borders with Bangladesh and India.
• In this situation, studying the impacts of this war on India becomes important.

Impacts on India:

• • Security Concerns: Instability in Myanmar can spill over into northeastern states of India, leading to cross-border tensions and security challenges.
    • Indian insurgent groups can use the instability in Myanmar to develop new bases in the country.

• Strategic Concerns: Increased Chinese influence in Myanmar through investments and support to armed groups may raise strategic concerns for India.

• • Allegations of Chinese funding and military aid to the Three Brotherhood alliance, which is a group of EAOs.
  • Increased Chinese economic presence along Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal coast through operationalization of oil and gas pipelines and agreements for economic zones and railways.
  • Oil and gas pipeline operationalised from the Shwe gas fields near Kyaukpyu in the Rakhine State to Yunnan province in China. 
  • Renewed efforts to construct a railway line from China’s Yunnan to Kyaukpyu via Mandalay as part of the China­Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
• Displacement of People: Conflict-induced displacement of people from Myanmar may lead to refugee influx into Indian states bordering Myanmar, creating ethnic tensions and humanitarian challenges.
  • Violence in Manipur state is aggravated due to this migration.
• Impact on Connectivity Projects: Disruptions or delays in India’s connectivity projects, such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, due to security concerns and instability in Myanmar.
  • Perception of security risks may deter investors and affect economic ties between India and Myanmar.
• Trade and Economic Impact: Disruptions in trade routes and economic activities between northeastern Indian states and Myanmar due to conflict and insecurity.

What can India do?

• Diplomatic Engagement: Strengthen diplomatic ties with both the Myanmar government and various ethnic armed groups to promote dialogue and conflict resolution.
  • Engage in regional diplomacy with neighbouring countries and international partners to find peaceful solutions to the conflict.
• Humanitarian Assistance: Provide humanitarian aid and support to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees from Myanmar, demonstrating India’s commitment to regional stability and humanitarian principles.
  • Collaborate with international organisations and NGOs to deliver aid effectively and address the humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict.
• Economic Engagement: Continue investment in connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, despite challenges, to strengthen economic ties with Myanmar and promote regional development.
  • Explore new economic opportunities in Myanmar, especially in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and trade, leveraging India’s expertise and resources.
• Mediation and Conflict Resolution: Offer to mediate between conflicting parties in Myanmar, leveraging India’s experience in conflict resolution and its neutral stance in the conflict.
  • Facilitate peace talks and negotiations between the Myanmar government and ethnic armed groups to reach a sustainable peace agreement.

India should develop a comprehensive strategy that integrates diplomatic, security, humanitarian, and economic elements to effectively address the complex challenges posed by this civil war.