Context:

• Global Nuclear Order(GNO) is facing challenging issues from different players and different parts of the world. With this prelude, we examine the components of GNO, challenges faced by GNO, India’s contribution to GNO and solutions to address the challenges.

Definition: 

• The term “Global Nuclear Order(GNO)” refers to a set of treaties, agreements, and practices aimed at preventing nuclear proliferation, reducing the risk of nuclear war, and managing the consequences of nuclear weapons use.
• Additionally, this order facilitates international utilisation of nuclear energy for civilian purposes like power production.
• The Cuban Missile Crisis compelled the USA and USSR to create a mechanism amongst nuclear powers which can help in defusing tensions from escalating to the nuclear level.

Components of GNO:

• Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty(NPT): 

• The U.S. and the U.S.S.R. initiated multilateral negotiations in 1965 on a treaty to curb the spread of nuclear weapons and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) opened for signature. 
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) aims to:
  • Stop the spread of nuclear weapons: Non-nuclear states promise not to acquire them, while nuclear states limit sharing nuclear technology.
  • Promote peaceful nuclear energy: All states have equal access to nuclear technology for peaceful uses like medicine and power generation.
  • Pursue nuclear disarmament: Nuclear states pledge to work towards reducing their arsenals and ultimately eliminating them.
• It came into existence in 1975.  Today, it is widely described as the cornerstone of the global nuclear order with 191 adherents.

• Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG):

• The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is a club of 48 countries with nuclear technology that aims to:
  • Control exports of materials, equipment, and technology that could be used to build nuclear weapons.
  • While restricting sensitive items, it seeks to allow peaceful nuclear cooperation for purposes like energy.

• Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM)Treaty:

• The treaty barred the USA and the USSR(now Russia) from deploying nationwide defences against strategic ballistic missiles. 
• In the treaty preamble, the two sides asserted that effective limits on anti-missile systems would be a “substantial factor in curbing the race in strategic offensive arms.”
• The U.S. withdrawal took effect June 13, 2002, and the treaty is no longer in force.

• The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty:

• The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty required the United States and the Soviet Union to eliminate and permanently forswear all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres. 
• The treaty marked the first time the superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals, eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and employ extensive on-site inspections for verification. 
• On Aug. 2, 2019, the United States formally withdrew from the INF Treaty.

• New START treaty:

• The New START Treaty entered into force on February 5, 2011.  
• Under the treaty, the United States and the Russian Federation had seven years to meet the treaty’s central limits on strategic offensive arms (by February 5, 2018) and are then obligated to maintain those limits for as long as the treaty remains in force.
• Strategic offensive arms includes Ballistic Missiles and other nuclear weapon delivery systems.
• This treaty is valid until 2026.

Success of GNO:

• The taboo against nuclear weapons has been held since 1945. It ensured that humanity has survived 75 years of the nuclear age without blowing itself up.
• Despite dire predictions of more than 20 countries possessing nuclear weapons by the 1970s, (there were five in 1968 – the U.S., U.S.S.R., U.K., France, and China), only four countries have since gone nuclear, i.e., India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan. 
• Even after the Cold War ended, non-proliferation remained a shared objective and Moscow and Washington cooperated to ensure that Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan that hosted Soviet nuclear weapons and possessed some capabilities, were denuclearised.

India and GNO:

• India had chosen not to sign the NPT as it believes the treaty to be discriminatory: favored existing nuclear powers while restricting others.
• In 1974, India stunned the world by conducting an underground peaceful nuclear explosive, or PNE. In response to India’s action, the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) came into force.
• From that point to getting a waiver from the NSG(2008) to start nuclear trade with the NPT countries, India has built an image of credible nuclear power.
• India’s moratorium on nuclear testing and its no-first-use policy helped in building this image.

New Challenges to the GNO:

• The U.S. faces an assertive China, determined to regain influence, regionally and globally. In the absence of treaties like ABM and INF, Chinese nuclear arsenal is growing to challenge US hegemony.
• Withdrawal of USA from ABM and INF has stopped the mutual verification process to ensure compliance of the treaties. 
• Conflict in Ukraine has made the relations between Russia and Western Countries sour and  revived nuclear concerns
• Nuclear proliferation by treaties like AUKUS(Australia-UK-US), which provides nuclear capabilities to non-nuclear nations like Australia.
• During the Cold War, the U.S.’s nuclear umbrella tied its European allies closer. Today, domestic compulsions are turning the U.S. inwards, raising questions in the minds of its allies about its ‘extended deterrence’ guarantees.
• Aggression by China has created the desire of nations like Taiwan, South Korea to develop nuclear capabilities and rise of defence expenditure in Japan. 

Way forward:  

• Revitalise Arms Control Agreements:
  • Prioritise extensions of crucial treaties like New START and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
  • Negotiate new agreements among capable nations: Pursue limitations on emerging military technologies like hypersonic weapons and cyber capabilities.
  • Strengthen verification and transparency: Enhance monitoring regimes and information sharing to build trust and reduce suspicion.
• Address Non-Proliferation Concerns:
  • Universalize the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Address the concerns of non members to encourage remaining states like North Korea and Israel to join and comply with its terms.
  • Strengthen safeguards and export controls: Enhance the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) frameworks to prevent nuclear materials and technology from falling into the wrong hands.
  • Address regional tensions: Foster dialogue and confidence-building measures in hot spots like South Asia, East Asia and Eastern Europe.
• Advance Nuclear Disarmament:
  • Move beyond incremental steps: Shift focus from small reductions to concrete steps towards significant disarmament commitments.
  • Engage major nuclear powers: Encourage US-Russia leadership and involve other key players like China and India in disarmament discussions.
  • Explore multilateral initiatives: Seek collaborative efforts like “nuclear weapon-free zones” and negative security guarantees.
• Build Trust and Cooperation:
  • Maintain regular dialogue: Facilitate regular communication and diplomatic channels between nuclear and non-nuclear states.
  • Promote transparency and openness: Encourage states to share information about their nuclear programs and policies to reduce ambiguity.
  • Address humanitarian concerns: Work to mitigate the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons, including the risks of accidental detonation and long-term environmental harms.
• Adapt to New Challenges:
  • Consider emerging technologies: Address the proliferation risks and security implications of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and other advanced technologies.
  • Promote non-state actor engagement: Develop strategies to prevent non-state actors from acquiring and using nuclear materials.
  • Foster public awareness and engagement: Educate the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons and build support for global nuclear security efforts.

Global Nuclear Order is a complex phenomenon involving multiple nations and factors. Building it back requires sustained commitment and cooperation from all stakeholders.