Context

• Early warning systems for extreme weather events are becoming more challenging due to temperature rise and the associated changes in the climate

Early warning systems

• Early warning system is an adaptive measure for climate change, using integrated communication systems to help communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events.

Components of early warning systems

• Monitoring and Detection: IIt refers to use of devices to monitor various parameters such as seismic activity, weather conditions, river levels, temperature, and other relevant indicators.
• Data Analysis and Forecasting: Centralized facilities process and analyze the data collected from monitoring instruments and satellites.
• Meteorological and Environmental Models: Computer models help forecast the potential impact of natural events based on historical data and current conditions.
• Communication Systems:Robust communication infrastructure is essential to transmit alerts and warnings quickly and efficiently. This is done through SMS, mobile apps, and social media.
• Warning Dissemination: Broadcasting alerts through radio, television, and online media channels ensures widespread dissemination.
• Response Coordination: Centralized command centers coordinate response efforts, ensuring a unified and organized reaction to the threat.
• Feedback and Evaluation: Assessing the effectiveness of early warnings by evaluating the response and outcome of the alerted population.
• Government and Institutional Involvement: Collaboration between government agencies, NGOs, and international organizations to enhance the efficiency of early warning efforts.

Challenges faced by early warning systems in a warming world

• The existing early warning systems are unable to accurately predict and forecast the changes in natural hazards effectively. 
• Many early warning systems, especially in developing countries, face resource constraints. This includes funding for infrastructure, technology, and human resources.
• Less than half of the Least Developed Countries and only one-third of Small Island Developing States have a multi-hazard early warning system. Multi-hazard early warning systems address several hazards that may occur alone, simultaneously, or cascadingly.
• Overreliance on technology, without sufficient backup systems or alternative communication channels, can make early warning systems vulnerable to technical failures, cyberattacks, or power outages.

Need of the hour

• To make accurate predictions of natural hazards, data from all the countries in a region needs to be brought together and fed into weather models.
• Developing countries also need better capacity-building and funding for better data collection.
• Success of forecast models depends on the amount and diversity of observational data on rainfall, temperatures and other necessary parameters, resolution of the model itself, and how well it is able to represent natural phenomena through a process of modelling known as physical parametrisation.
• For addressing transboundary hazards, effective early warning should incorporate international cooperation and data sharing.

Conclusion

• Artificial intelligence and machine learning can fill the technology gaps on the reliability of weather forecasts and early warning.