Context

• According to the State of World Population 2023 Report, published by the United Nations Population Fund, India will surpass China to become the most populated country in the world by July this year.

Population Estimation

• India’s population is pegged to reach 142.86 crore against China’s 142.57 crore by July 2023.
• 25% of India’s population is in the age group of 0-14 years, 18% in the 10-19 age group, 26% in the age bracket of 10-24 years, 68% in the 15-64 years age group, and 7% above 65 years.
• India has also the highest working-age population of 1.1 billion which is 75 per cent of the total population.

Busting the myth of population rise threat

• The population rise threat is more of a myth now. Global population growth has been less than 1 per cent since 2020. 
• Two-thirds of the world population live in countries that have a below total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1, or the zero-growth fertility rate. 
  • The total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ends childbearing.
• The report reveals that over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries, as the number of deaths will progressively exceed the number of births.

Indian Scenario on Depopulation

• By current United Nations estimates, India’s population will begin to decline only in 2063. 
• Fertility in India is falling along expected lines as a direct result of rising incomes and greater female access to health and education. 
• Government data reveals that 23 states and Union territories had a total fertility rate below replacement level (TFR of 2.1). 
• The Economic Survey 2018-19 said that India’s population growth rate will decline faster than assumed.

Way Forward

• There should be emphasis on harnessing the potential of demographic dividend. 
• There is a need for much focus on betterment of living standard of living by providing skills to the youth.

https://www.unfpa.org/swp2023