Context

• The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been affected by the problem of cross-border terrorism, separatist violence and armed militancy for the last three decades. However, since the heydays of terrorist violence in the early 1990s, this militancy has transformed radically.
• Although there are some evolving and emerging challenges from the Counter-Terrorism (CT) perspective, security forces are confident of effectively tackling them.

Current Terrorism Outlook for the Region  

• A vital indicator of the improved security situation in Kashmir Valley is the residual strength of the terrorists operating in the region. This number stretched to thousands at the peak of militancy in the early 1990s. Current terrorist strength in Kashmir stands at approximately 163, the lowest in decades.
• They primarily belong to the three terrorist groups— Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). Some are part of the local affiliates of pan-Islamic groups such as Al-Qaeda’s Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, and Islamic State J&K. However, their numbers are marginal.
• Security forces note that,unlike the previous times, Pakistani terrorists have been reduced to guiding and motivating the local terrorists, who have taken charge of the militancy in the region.

Tackling Cross-Border Militant Infiltration  

• Pakistan-based terrorist groups have used the mountainous terrain in north Kashmir to sneak into the Kashmir Valley. Pakistani security establishment actively supports them by bringing infiltrating terrorists right up to the LoC in army vehicles, monitoring the infiltration routes, giving covering fire while terrorists infiltrate, and supplying sophisticated communication equipment.
• Militants also enter from the south of Pir Panjal range (the Jammu-Samba-Kathua plains and the hilly Rajouri-Poonch area), sometimes through tunnels.
• To counter this infiltration, security forces have raised a highly-effective three tiered counter-infiltration grid. In this, the Indian Army forms the first tier on the LoC, followed by the second tier of paramilitaries such as the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), and the third one of the J&K Police (JKP).
• In addition, the security forces have deployed Anti Infiltration Obstacle System (AIOS) fencing and strengthened surveillance through reconnaissance drones, night-vision  equipment, and hand-held thermal imaging devices.
• These efforts combined have contributed to the infiltration levels going down significantly. For example, in 2020 and 2021, the number of infiltration attempts went down to double digits— 62 and 58 respectively, with only 72 managing to successfully infiltrate together in those two years.

Crackdown on Terrorist Groups and their Ecosystem  

• Meanwhile, security forces have kept up the pressure on the terrorist groups in the hinterland through several Counter-Insurgency (CI) operations. These have yielded significant success by eliminating the top militant leadership and disrupting their subversive plans.
• Thus, barring the February 2019 suicide attack on the CRPF convoy at Lethpora in Pulwama district, militants have been reduced to carrying out an intermittent campaign of targeted killings against soft targets. This random violence denotes their desperation and an attempt to stay relevant in Kashmir’s changing security scenario.
• A crucial part of the security crackdown is the punitive action against the subversive elements of the ecosystem that support the terrorists. It includes not just the network of the Over Ground Workers (OGWs) and terrorist sympathisers but also the cadres of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). In 2019, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) banned the JeI, terming it an “unlawful association.”
• Countering terrorist finances has been another focus area for the security establishment. For this, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has launched several investigations into the cases of terrorist financing.
• Besides, the MHA has set up a Terror Monitoring Group, comprising  representatives of security (NIA, Central Bureau of  Investigation, Intelligence Bureau and JKP) and financial agencies (Central Board of Direct Taxes, and Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs) to closely monitor terrorist financing cases.
• This crackdown has dramatically reduced the stone-pelting incidents which had once become a striking feature of unrest in Kashmir Valley.
• Significantly, the security forces have also implemented several soft measures that the locals have appreciated. These include exercising maximum restraint, avoiding pellet guns and minimising collateral damage during the CI operations and protest demonstrations.
• Besides, top security officials have made an outreach to the families of active militants to request their kids to surrender. These initiatives have deprived ISI and terrorist masterminds of significant propaganda material.
• These measures have improved the security situation in the valley and boosted the local tourism sector, with tourist arrivals hitting a new high.

Evolving and Emerging CT Challenges  

• Radicalisation and Terrorist Recruitment: While security forces have broadly controlled the situation, a major concern for them is the uptick in local terrorist recruitment in some areas. A significant contributor to this local recruitment is the radicalisation of the local youth, which has emerged as the most critical security challenge.
• Several factors aid the radicalisation process, including peer pressure, victimhood feelings and self-radicalisation enabled by the Salafiand Wahhabi propaganda.
• Furthermore, cyberspace, including the dark web and social media platforms, amplifies this religious propaganda, accelerating radicalisation.
• Countering this radicalisation process is a work in progress, and security forces have launched multiple initiatives to reverse the trend. For instance, the Indian Army’s ‘Sahi Raasta’ initiative aims to bring the youth on the right track through national integration tours, sports training programmes and festivals, and skill development workshops.
• Hybrid terrorists and virtual terrorist outfits: With increased CI operations and neutralisation of many active militants, terrorist masterminds have now changed their strategy to obfuscate their activities. To commit violence, they are now using terrorist sympathisers. 
• Most of them have no criminal records and are therefore likely to escape police scrutiny. These ‘hybrid  terrorists’ are the ones who are primarily responsible for the recent acts of targeted killings in and around Srinagar.
• In addition, security forces have noted the proliferation of virtual terrorist groups like the Jammu Kashmir Ghaznavi Force and The Resistance Front, which are nothing but front organisations for LeT and other terrorist outfits or organisations.
• In response, the JKP is strengthening its human and technical intelligence capabilities. This is proving helpful in apprehending these hybrid terrorists.
• Pakistan’s information warfare: Since 2019, ISI’s disinformation machinery has gone into overdrive on social media platforms with anti-India propaganda. With Pakistan’s material and financial support to anti-India terrorist groups like LeT and JeM coming under the global scanner, the ISI has sought to project Kashmir’s militancy as ‘indigenous resistance.’
• In addition, it has sought to label India as a major human rights violator. This propaganda aims to draw attention to Kashmir and gain international sympathy.
• This information warfare campaign by Pakistan is a significant challenge because it exploits any minor incident to create a narrative of falsehood against India and the security forces.
• Countering these narratives will require a comprehensive national effort anchored in India’s democratic credentials.

Conclusion

• It is clear that despite a flux in the regional security environment and Pakistan’s attempts to stir trouble, Kashmir’s security situation has remained remarkably calm and stable. The security forces have decisively  turned the tables against Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism and its proxies.
• To maintain this advantage, other government agencies will need to carry the baton forward to deliver better governance and establish the writ of the sovereign.