Exit polls are post-election surveys that are done shortly after people vote to measure support for political parties and their candidates.

An opinion poll, on the other hand, is a pre-election survey that gathers voters’ perspectives on a variety of election-related matters.

Exit poll findings cannot be disclosed until the final round of elections is completed, according to Election Commission (EC) norms. While there is no clear restriction on opinion surveys, the findings of opinion polls can only be released 48 hours before the vote begins. As soon as the EC announces the implementation of the model code of conduct for elections, it intends to limit the publication and transmission of opinion polls. 

Why they need to be regulated

• Both types of surveys can be contentious if the organisation conducting them is regarded to be biased.
• According to critics, the forecasts of these polls can be impacted by the questions’ choice, wording, and timing, as well as the type of the sample selected. Political parties sometimes claim that many opinion and exit surveys are driven and sponsored by their opponents and may affect voters’ choices in a long election, rather than simply reflecting general emotion or opinions.
• Most national and state party representatives have admitted that these surveys are unscientific and contain biases due to sample size and type.
• The Election Commission has sought multiple times to prohibit and regulate these polls. For example, the European Commission ruled in 1998 that newspapers and television broadcasters must publish the following information when reporting the findings of exit and opinion polls: sample size of the electorate, polling technique information, margin of error, and polling agency background
• Having seen “paid news” in action, it apprehends that some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased. Also, almost all polls are non-transparent, providing little information on the methodology. With such infirmities, many “polls” amount to disinformation that can result in “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offence” under IPC Section 171 (C). It is a “corrupt practice” under section 123 (2) of the RP Act.
• EC has addressed the Legislation Ministry multiple times, requesting that the law be amended to prohibit these polls. Through the addition of Section 126(A) to the Representation of the People Act 1951 in 2010, only exit polls were restricted.

How other countries fare?

• In the United States, media coverage of opinion polls is considered an essential aspect of free expression during elections, and publication is permitted at any time. The sole limitation — not revealing projected exit poll results before voting ends on Election Day — is one that news organisations commissioning the surveys willingly impose on themselves.
• There are no limits in the UK on releasing the findings of opinion polls; however, the results of exit polls cannot be released before the vote is completed.
• Sixteen European Union nations prohibit the publication of opinion polls, with bans ranging from a full month to only 24 hours before polling day.

Way forward

• While the Constitution allows for reasonable restrictions on freedom of expression, its mandate to the ECI for free and fair elections is absolute.
• Ideally, an independent regulator, like the British Polling Council would be a viable option. All polling agencies must disclose for scrutiny the sponsor, besides sample size, methodology, time frame, quality of training of research staff, etc. India could set up its own professional body on the same lines. After the Bihar 2015 election, six leading agencies had spoken about the possibility of starting a self-regulatory body — the Indian Polling Council.
• Exit polls, which were banned by amendment to the RP Act, in 2008, making both the conduct of the polls and their dissemination illegal. Media has regularly flouted the law by “conducting” exit polls on poll days, though airing the result only after the closure of the poll on the last day. ECI must look at this violation.

How to structure

1. Give an intro about exit poll and opinion poll
2. Explain the differences
3. Analyse whether they need to be regulated and cite the reasons
4. Suggest way forward
5. Conclude

Reference:

1. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/why-opinion-polls-need-regulation-elections-exit-polls-7763359