Will AUKUS upset the Indo-Pacific balance?

Recently, the U.S. President Joe Biden, along with Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson of Australia and the U.K. respectively, announced the formation of a new trilateral security partnership called AUKUS (Australia-U.K.-U.S.).
Under the new security alliance, the U.S. and the U.K. will transfer technology to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.
Its stated aim is to “update and enhance our shared ability to take on the threats of the 21st century just as we did in the 20th century: together.”

The summit announcement specifically referenced its intent for AUKUS to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific in the long term. Unsurprisingly, it drew a sharp response from China, whose territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific may well have been a key factor behind the formation of this group.
In its reaction, China criticised the security alliance saying it will gravely undermine regional stability and aggravate the arms race.
A parallel development in the submarine deal was the rupture in diplomatic relations between France and the members of AUKUS because Australia cancelled a $90-billion conventional submarine purchase order placed with France and opted instead for the nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

It is unlikely that the new grouping will be a game changer.
First, the U.S., as a leading global military power, already has a strong presence in the Indo-Pacific, especially in a grouping that includes Australia, India, and Japan — the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad. This involves joint military presence, and a wide array of war games and more in the region.
Similarly, the U.S., the U.K., Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are members of Five Eyes, an intelligence-sharing alliance, which also has regional security implications.
Secondly, AUKUS will not likely deter Beijing’s strategic calculus across the region, particularly relating to its maritime ambitions and territorial expansionism. The one element of AUKUS that has potential to cause a recalibration of China’s plans in this realm is the nuclear-powered submarines.
The countries that have such submarines operational are the U.S. (68), Russia (29), China (12) the U.K. (11), France (8) and India (1). Given this balance, which implies Chinese dominance across the Indo-Pacific, the effect of AUKUS facilitating the development of a nuclear fleet for Australia may heighten Beijing’s anxiety over its nuclear-powered submarine fleet leading to arms race in the region.

Responding to the creation of AUKUS, India said that it is neither relevant to the Quad nor will it have any impact on its functioning.
However, India may indeed derive secondary benefits from having three advanced nations with arguably the most sophisticated military know-how in the world coming together to support a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Given the inroads that China has made in recent decades with its Belt and Road Initiative, including through projects or proposals for infrastructure development in Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and beyond into Central Asia, India’s fears over ‘encirclement’ by China may be partially mitigated by AUKUS.

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