India’s COVID crisis — when difficult became worse
WHY IN NEWS?
India is suffering from the second wave of Coronavirus with more than 3 lakh daily cases. India is in its darkest days of the pandemic, but there may be still darker days to come. Its second wave is a result of poor political choices as political leaders have been slow and largely failed to take the outbreak seriously, bad communications, and neglect of public health principles. Lockdowns are being used as a tool to control the spread of viruses but given the catastrophic state of affairs, effective intervention will require much more rigorous and extensive action.
LACUNAE IN PRESENT COVID MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
- Data gap: There has been a data gap as a result of which it is difficult to grasp the true scope of this crisis. We are likely missing many infections and undocumented deaths which may be too higher than official figures as supported by long queue at crematorium.
- Premature celebration: India did well during the first phase of Coronavirus when daily new infections dropped to less than 10,000 driven in part by successful efforts to enforce social distancing and other public health measures. There was also rolling of homegrown vaccines. However, the celebration started early. Lot of relaxation was given in a short period of time. Almost no steps to limit the risk posed by the Kumbh Mela festival, resumption of large, in-person political rallies and other large gatherings are part of the fuel that has caused COVID-19 to explode. This premature celebration has ushered in a nightmare. Kumbh Mela has resulted in thousands of positive tests, including several sadhus and former King Gyanendra of Nepal, with many thousands of infections sure to go undetected as pilgrims return to their home communities.
- Control strategies: Viruses mutate constantly. However, only when they are allowed to spread unchecked through large populations, more deadly variants become established. This will change the dynamics of outbreaks. At the moment, India scientists and public health policymakers are drawing on extremely limited data, as far too few cases of infection are being analysed. India needs to rapidly scale up its genomic surveillance efforts to have the data needed to guide policy decisions.
STEPS TO BE TAKEN
- To bring the astronomical growth of the pandemic under control Short-term targeted lockdowns can be done as in Delhi and Bangalore. Lockdowns exact a terrible economic and social cost and hence should be a strategy of last resort. Lockdown needs to be removed once infection numbers are in control.
- Second strategy will be expanding access to vaccines which will take weeks before the benefit can be felt. Vaccine rollout without massive outreach and support for the complex, the challenging logistics of administering vaccines, and simply broadening eligibility requirements will do little to slow the virus. Whatever strategy India takes to administer vaccines the key is ensuring the country has enough vaccines. Government needs to work with manufacturers like the Serum Institute and should identify what is slowing them down, use the full clout of the Indian government to drive production higher.
- A surge in testing is needed. India has the capacity to do that many more tests but has not made it enough of a priority. India needs to increase its testing rates several times over, with the goal of getting the positivity rate under 5%.
- Universal masks wearing high quality masks must be made mandatory. All major indoor and outdoor events, including rallies, religious festivals, weddings, and so forth should be banned.
WAY FORWARD
India is now suffering the worst days of the pandemic as a result of poor political choices, poor communications, and neglect of public health principles. However the good news is that we know how to control Coronavirus. If we do things like focus on public health measures, improve vaccinations, universal masking, and effective coordination across public health efforts then hospitals can be stopped from being overwhelmed, and life can begin to go back to normal.
Reference:
