CONTEXT  Japan, Iran, Turkey and India are well set to shape the emerging world order.

START OF NEW COLD WAR

U.S- CHINA HOSTILITY

• The U.S. continues to view China as its principal adversary on the world stage, therefore it has called on like-minded nations to curb China’s growth,
• It will use Quad to reduce China’s influence in international institutions and induce it to change in more creative and assertive ways.
• Thus, using Quad against China in the Indo-Pacific, possibly as part of a “new Cold War”.

U.S-RUSSIA HOSTILITY

• The U.S.’s hostility for Russia goes back to the latter’s war with Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea in 2014, followed by allegations of Russian cyber-interference in the U.S. presidential elections of 2016.

CHINA- RUSSIA PARTNERSHIP

• U.S. animosity has encouraged China and Russia to solidify their relations.
• Besides significantly expanding their bilateral ties, the two countries have agreed to harmonise their visions under the Eurasian Economic Union sponsored by Russia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• This idea has now been subsumed under the ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’ to which both are committed.
• Both nations have condemned the Quad for “undermining global strategic stability”.
• Thus, the new Cold War is now being reflected in a new geopolitical binary — the Indo-Pacific versus Eurasia.

ROLE OF MIDDLE POWERS

The final shape of this divide will be determined by four nations, namely Japan, Iran, Turkey and India, which, as “middle powers” as they:

• have the capacity to project power regionally,
• build alliances, and
• support (or disrupt) the strategies of international powers pursuing their interests in the region.

ONGOING ALIGNMENTS

• Japan and India are deeply entrenched in the Quad and have substantial security ties with the U.S.
• Iran, on the other hand, has for long been an outcast in western eyes and has found strategic comfort with the Sino-Russian alliance.
• Turkey, a NATO member, has found its interests better-served by Russia and China rather than the U.S. and its European allies.

RELUCTANT ALLIES

The four middle powers, whose choice of alignment will impart a political and military binary to world order, are reluctant to make this a reality. Despite the allure of joining the rival super power groupings led by the U.S. or China and Russia, the four nations are not yet prepared to join the power alliances. 

JAPAN

• Japan has an ongoing territorial dispute with China relating to the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea.
• Thus, the security treaty of 1951 with the U.S. has been crucial for Japan’s interests.
• But there is more to Sino-Japanese relations: in 2019, 24% of Japanese imports came from China, while 19% of its exports went to China. Thus Japan depends too much on the U.S. for its security and too much on China for its prosperity.
• It is to be noted that, recently Japan has tried to reduce its security-dependence on the U.S. and pursue an independent role in the Indo-Pacific.

INDIA

• India’s ties with China have been caught in a vicious circle.
• As threats from China at the border and intrusions in its South Asian neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean became sharper, it moved closer to the U.S.
• India’s expanding defence ties with the U.S. from 2016, consisting of massive defence purchases and agreements on interoperability and intelligence-sharing and frequent military exercises, as also the elevation of the Quad to ministerial level in September 2019, signals the deep cooperation between the two.
• But, with the border stand-off at Ladakh, China is perhaps reminding India that its security interests demand close engagement with China rather than a deepening alignment with its global rival. 

IRAN

• The crippling sanctions on Iran and the frequent threats of regime change make it a natural ally of the Sino-Russian axis.
• However, its strategic culture abstains long-term security alignments. This will surely assert itself after sanctions are eased, when the Islamic Republic of Iran will seek to redefine its strategic space and exercise independent options.

TURKEY

• Turkey has witnessed a steady distancing from its western partners and increasing geopolitical, military and economic alignment with Russia and China.
• But Turkey still wishes to keep its ties with the U.S. intact, and retain the freedom to make choices.
• Its “New Asia” initiative, for instance, involves strengthening of east-west logistical and economic connectivity backed by western powers and China.

CONCLUSION 

• Amidst new cold war alignments these four middle powers nations could find salvation in “strategic autonomy” — defined by flexible partnerships, with freedom to shape alliances to suit specific interests at different times.
• Hence, these four will make multipolarity, rather than a new Cold War, the defining characteristic of the emerging global order.

Reference:

1. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-multipolarity-scripted-by-the-middle-powers/article34329761.ece