NEWS On February 1, the Myanmar army seized power, turning a partial democracy into a full fledged military rule and detained State Counsellor Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other top leaders of the government in power.

BACKGROUND

• The army declared an emergency, transferring all powers to Commander­-in-­Chief Min Aung Hlaing. To explain its actions, the military is pointing out the allegations made by the Army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
• (USDP is the party which faced humiliating defeat while Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won the polls by almost 80% of the votes.)
• It is being alleged that there was “terrible fraud in the voter list” in the parliamentary elections held in November 2020, and even the Election Commission “failed to settle the matter.”
• Similar drastic actions to overthrow a democratic government took place in the year 1962, 1988 and 1990, by then military generals.
• Only 10 years ago, after decades of brutal military dictatorship, the fragile transition to democracy was started in Myanmar.

WHY THE TRANSITION FAILED?

• In 2008, the military had written a new Constitution ensuring then Generals’ interests even if there would be a transition.
• Elections were conducted under this new Constitution. The NLD, did not recognise the Constitution and boycotted the 2010 election, while the army backed party- USDP won it.
• In the next five years, the Army loosened its grip on the government and society. Political prisoners, including Ms. Suu Kyi, were released, media censorship was eased.
• Ms. Suu Kyi’s party also changed its earlier position and accepted the Army-written Constitution. In 2015 elections, the country’s first free and fair election were conducted, participated by multiple parties and NLD came up as victorious.
• But the 2008 Constitution has enough clauses to prevent such a change. According to the Constitution, the President must have military experience and the President himself, his spouse or children “shall not be subject to a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country”. Hence, Ms. Suu Kyi, whose two sons are British citizens, cannot become President.
• The Constitution also mandates that the Defence and Interior Ministries would be controlled by the military. Also, 25% of the total seats in Parliament were reserved for the military, giving it a veto over any move to change the Constitution.

 WHAT DOES THE ARMY WANTS?

• Military did not want the result of the elections to be constitutionally endorsed with the convening of the newly elected parliament.
• Tensions have been rising between the NLD and the military ever since the November election. The 2015 and 2020 election results showed the growing popularity of Ms. Suu Kyi and the unpopularity of the military. This set the alarm bells ringing in the headquarters of the Myanmar military.

WHAT NEXT?

• The Army has promised elections, without offering any time frame. But the NLD has called for protests against the coup. The U.S., which under President Obama helped the transition, has reacted harshly, while India has expressed “deep concern”.
• Also possibility is that if China wants Myanmar under military rule could circumvent pressure from the U.S., even economic sanctions, by moving closer to China, which is already making huge investments in Myanmar. But Suu Kyi’s popularity and an energised NLD would be an impediment for them. 

Reference:

1. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/explainer-why-did-the-myanmar-military-stage-a-coup/article33732207.ece