CONTEXT 

Dispelling the existing concerns about disruption of the Inauguration ceremony of the 46th President of the United States, after the unprecedented event that the country witnessed in the Capitol building, finally democracy triumphed in the states of America.

The current President of the United States tends to be idealistic, multilateralist and is deeply committed to democratic values, unlike his predecessor, Donald Trump.

POLICY RESET

• There exists the fair possibility that the new President would very soon come to realise that the global environment today is very different from the one that he knew as Vice­ President. A return to erstwhile Obama­ era policies may, hence, prove inadequate.
• The world has moved on and several policies will need a reset. Hence, one can expect the U.S. to rescind the ‘militarisation’ of foreign policy reverting to erstwhile traditional diplomacy.
• A fresh look at many contentious foreign policy issues could result in incorporation of elements like competition and cooperation.

CHINA

• The acid test of the present presidency would be how to deal with China. Rising China is not merely the single most serious challenge the U.S. faces at present, but it poses a diplomatic, economic and technological threat to U.S. preeminence.
• Persisting with old time remedies such as devising an inclusive security architecture in Asia to check an expanding China threat in East Asia could prove counterproductive.
• As in present times, only few countries in Asia are willing to line up against neighbouring China.
• This raises the question, whether the U.S. should persist with confrontation or attempt conciliation.
• If the latter, it would require the U.S. to soft pedal its present antagonistic posture towards China. This could well have global implications.

RUSSIA

• The depth of antagonism between the two countries, the U.S. and Russia, remains unchanged, aggravated further by the growing strategic harmony between Russia and China.
• Initial reactions seem to point that U.S. relations with Russia would continue to remain cold. But as Russia flexes its muscles in Eurasia, the U.S. will need to come up with new policy directives, rather than surrender the initiative to the former.

EUROPE AND WEST ASIA

• Repairing the ties with Europe, West Asia will pose President Biden an uphill task, as the days of mutual congruency in the policies are over, and Europe is no longer likely to give in to U.S. diktats.
• Germany is possibly emerging as Europe’s new centre of gravity, dictating Europe’s relations with countries such as China and Russia.
• Germany, while being highly critical of Russia’s human rights record, including the most recent incident of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, is not hesitating to go ahead with Nord Stream 2, the Russia­ led gas pipeline project, despite the U.S.’s objections.
• The EU-­China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, again despite the U.S.’s objections, is another indication of Europe’s new independent thinking.
• European leaders seem more inclined to heed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s warning to global leaders, at the virtual World Economic Forum at Davos, this January, against ‘starting a new Cold War’, than listen to the U.S.’s Biden.

Problems abound for the new U.S. Administration in West Asia as well.

• With the civil wars in Syria and Yemen not having ended, the U.S.’s efforts to find a political settlement here will prove difficult.
• How to deal with Saudi Arabia, adds to the complexity of dealing with West Asia.
• The ‘Abraham Accords’, forged during the dying days of the Trump Administration, have further complicated the situation for the incoming government.
• Other majors in the region would be finding ways and means to deal with the Iran problem, including Iran’s capacity and potential for nuclear mischief. Return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal framework, may not be a realistic option in the wake of the ‘Abraham Accords’, which have imparted a new dynamic and given a sharper edge to the existing Israel-­Iran divide.

THE OUTLOOK FOR INDIA

• India hopes that the Biden Administration to be even more favourable to it than the preceding Republican Administration. This may, however, turn out to be like the proverbial curate’s egg — good in parts.
• As Mr. Biden as the Vice­ President, played a critical role as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in pushing through the iconic U.S.­India civil nuclear agreement, and also as a firm proponent of the India­-U.S. strategic partnership.
• Hence, under a Biden Administration, defence and security cooperation between India and the U.S. are likely to be further stepped up. Regional security cooperation is also likely to be further enhanced, at least till such time as U.S.­-China relations improve.
• However, a Biden Administration will be far less supportive of India on several issues such as: issue in Kashmir, Muslim minority in India, treatment of non­governmental organisations and the like.
• Mr. Biden’s commitment to human rights is, by far, much stronger than that of many recent U.S. Presidents. He can be expected to satisfy his traditional constituency even at the risk of upsetting partners such as India.
• Analysing the statements and views of U.S. Secretary of State Antony John Blinken and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is more disconcerting for India, that is while the emphasis on a free and open Indo­-Pacific region will continue, countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to have a far more critical role to play than India in achieving security in the Indo-­Pacific.

This implies the U.S. could also be less forthcoming in its open support to India and in its ongoing confrontation with China in Eastern Ladakh.

THE AFGHAN PLAN

• Unsatisfactory again from an Indian standpoint are the implications of Mr. Biden’s Afghanistan policy.
• From positions taken by U.S. National Security Advisor, Mr. Sullivan, it would appear that there is little room for India in the latest plans for Afghan issue.
• Mr. Biden is an ardent advocate of ending the war in Afghanistan and he is likely to implement this with vigour, not excluding a deal with the Taliban, the possible exit of elected President Ashraf Ghani, and giving Pakistan an even bigger role in acting as the mid-wife of any new arrangement.
• This would mean that India’s efforts of the past two decades to restore democracy in Afghanistan would come unstuck, but also Pakistan would gain a degree of legitimacy that had been denied to it by the Trump Administration, encouraging it to act with still greater impunity in carrying out terror strikes on India.

From a restricted standpoint, if India were to balance the positive with the negative, and compare the incoming Biden Administration with the previous Trump Administration, the balance sheet could be marginally negative.

Reference:

1. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/weighing-in-on-the-biden-presidency/article33743191.ece