CONTEXT A politically-guided doctrine and comprehensive military capability are needed to deal with the China-Pakistan threat.

OPINIONS TILL RECENT

• INDIAN MILITARY- India’s military was firmly of the view that a collusive China­-Pakistan military threat was a real possibility, and we must develop capabilities to counter this challenge.
• POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC COMMUNITY- Political class in general and the mainstay of the country’s strategic community felt that a two front threat was being overhyped by the military to press for additional resources and funds. Also historically, China has never intervened militarily in any India-Pakistan conflict.
• As a result, Indian strategic thinking was overwhelmingly focused on Pakistan and the security considerations emanating from there.

RECENT INTRUSIONS CHANGE THINGS

• The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in May, the violence that resulted from clashes between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army, and the deadlock in negotiations have now made the Chinese military threat more apparent and real.
• This comes at a time when the situation along the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan has been steadily deteriorating. As a result the worrisome two front situation has arisen for India.

CHINA-PAKISTAN MILITARY LINKS

• The Sino-­Pakistan relationship is nothing new, but it has far serious implications today than
• perhaps ever before.
• Over the years, the ties between the two countries have strengthened and there is a great deal of alignment in their strategic thinking.
• Military cooperation is growing, with China accounting for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-­2019.

Hence, there is a need for India to be ready for a two front threat. In preparing for this, the Indian military needs to realistically analyse how this threat could manifest itself and the type of capabilities that should be built up to counter it.

 DILEMMAS FOR INDIA

• A two front conflict presents the Indian military with two dilemmas — of resources and strategy.
• It is estimated that about 60 combat squadrons are needed to deal with a serious two front threat. This is double the number of squadrons currently with the Indian Air Force (IAF).
• Regarding the strategy to be deployed against Pakistan- if defensive, it may encourage Pakistan to continue with its actions in J&K; being offensive could draw limited resources into a wider conflict.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

• It is certain that the threat cannot be ignored. Therefore there is a need to develop both the doctrine and the capability to deal with this contingency.
• Developing a doctrine will require close interaction with the political leadership, while capability building requires a serious debate
• Currently, too much focus is being given on major platforms such as aircraft, ships, and tanks, and not enough on future technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, etc. Hence, India needs to work towards upgrading its existing technologies.
• The right balance will have to be struck based on a detailed assessment of China and Pakistan’s war­fighting strategies.

ROLE THAT DIPLOMACY CAN PLAY

• Diplomacy has a crucial role to play in meeting the two front challenges.
• New Delhi needs to improve the relations with its neighbours, thus avoiding being  caught in an unfriendly neighbourhood.
• The government’s current engagement of the key powers in West Asia, including Iran, should be further strengthened in order to ensure energy security, increase maritime cooperation and enhance goodwill in the extended neighbourhood.
• India’s needs to strengthen its maritime strategy, as it can help to ease the Sino­-Pakistan pressure in the continental sphere.

OUTREACH TO KASHMIR

• The stark military reality of a two front challenge must serve as a wake­up call for the political leadership in New Delhi, and encourage it to look for ways to ease the pressure from either front.
• Easing pressure on the western front requires political will more than anything else.
• From a long­view perspective, political outreach to Kashmir aimed at pacifying the aggrieved citizens is the possible step towards this end.
• This could also lead to a potential rapprochement with Pakistan, which can be persuaded to put an end to terrorist infiltration into Kashmir.

 China, a rising and aggressive, superpower next door, is the bigger strategic threat for India, with Pakistan being a second order accessory to Beijing’s ‘contain India Strategy’. New Delhi would, therefore, do well to do what it can politically to reduce the effect of a collusive Sino­-Pakistan containment strategy aimed at India.

Reference:

1. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/dealing-with-indias-two-front-challenge/article33439804.ece