Indian economy contracts by 7.5% in Q2
What’s in the news?
- As per estimates released by the National Statistical Office, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 7.5% in the second quarter of 2020-21, following the record 23.9% decline recorded in the first quarter.
- The country has now entered a technical recession with two successive quarters of negative growth.
- However, the economy’s performance between July and September when lockdown restrictions were eased is better than most rating agencies and analysts anticipated. While most had estimated a contraction of around 10%, the Reserve Bank of India had projected a 8.6% decline in the second quarter.
Sharp recovery
- Agriculture, which was the only sector to record growth between April and June this year, grew at the same pace of 3.4% in the second quarter, while manufacturing gross value-added (GVA) staged a sharp recovery to record 0.6% growth between July and September after collapsing 39.3% in the first quarter.
- Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting shrank 15.6% in Q2, after a massive 47% contraction in Q1.
- The recovery is expected to continue in Q3 as the government lifts curbs on most economic activities that were imposed in March.
- India’s growth is still lagging behind other major Asian economies such as China, which expanded 4.9% in the September quarter; Japan, which grew 5%; and Singapore, which contracted 5.8%.
What is a technical recession?
- A technical recession is a term used to describe two consecutive quarters of decline in output. In the case of a nation’s economy, the term usually refers to back-to-back contractions in real GDP.
- The most significant difference between a ‘technical recession’ and a ‘recession’ is that while the former term is mainly used to capture the trend in GDP, the latter expression encompasses an appreciably more broad-based decline in economic activity that covers several economic variables including employment, household and corporate incomes and sales at businesses.
- Another key feature of a technical recession is that it is most often caused by a one-off event (in this case, the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdowns imposed to combat it) and is generally shorter in duration.
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