Every sector in the Indian Economy has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. But agriculture has shown a good progress in these times and has been engaged rightfully.

What are the factors which represent growth in the agriculture sector?

Sowing statistics

• Farmers have in the current monsoon season so far planted 13.9% more area compared to last year’s coverage at this time.
• Except jute, all other crops have seen a surge in their acreage sowing. 

Sale of fertilizers

• Another indicator which showed a surge is the sale of fertilizers.  
• The sale of fertilizer has seen a growth of around 34% in the July month of 2020. 

Exemption from the restriction

• The movement of labour and machines for agricultural operations were exempted from the coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions.
• This made feasible for farming activities to continue a normal pattern of work.

Bumper crop in last year’s Rabi season

• Due to good rainfall last year, the farmers could produce surplus in the 2019-20 rabi season (winter season). 
• This also pushed Food Corporation of India (FCI) to procure all-time-high 389.75 lakh tonnes (lt) of wheat and 504.86 lt of rice from the 2019-20 crop. 
• This left farmers with more money which they could invest in the 2020 kharif season.

Benefit Transfers

• Under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme, along with Minimum Support Price (MSP) benefits, the government has till now transferred 1,38,000 crore of government liquidity into the farm economy between April and July.

Good Monsoon

• The first half of monsoon in 2020 have showered  rainfall above than average in June and July month of 2020.

What are some uncertainties?

• To keep this trajectory till the year end we need consistency in the existing factors but there are some uncertainties which can spoil this trajectory.

1. The most important one is the monsoon. Though we are experiencing the ‘neutral’ El Nino, there are some possibilities where the monsoon can turn out going into a deficit. In the coming months of August and September the monsoon should be good.
2. The second one is DESERT LOCUST (insect attack). The months of April and May have seen locusts entering India and now scientists predict that they are laying eggs in some of the regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat. If the eggs hatch and young locusts form swarms (group of insects in large numbers), they can destroy vast amounts of crops. This has to be controlled and managed by spraying pesticides.
3. Dairy is one of the important components of agriculture and allied sectors. But since lockdown the rate of milk has been decreased by almost ₹10 per litre. There is need to push this sector with incentives and support.

Conclusion

• Agriculture until now has been a bright spark amid the economic gloom unleashed by Covid. But the coming days may also expose weak spots.