Troubling prospects in Afghanistan

NEWS As the reality of the U.S. withdrawal takes hold, the future will depend on Taliban-Kabul dynamics and Pakistan’s role.

CONTEXT

The withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan is a reality now. Handing over of Bagram airbase to the Afghan authorities last friday marks the symbolic end to United states symbolic end to its military presence in Afghanistan.
U.S. forces have completed their withdrawal well ahead of the September 11 deadline. Withdrawal of the US forces have resulted in the uncertainty over the future of Kabul. The future will depend on Taliban-Kabul dynamics and Pakistan’s role.

20 YEARS OF THE WAR ON USA IN AFGHANISTAN

The war has been a costly misadventure for the US. It has been 20 years since the war started in October 2001. Intervention in Afghanistan by the US has been unsuccessful and the US is forced to negotiate with the same Taliban which it went in to punish.
Data shows that the war has been a costly lesson. The war effort has cost $980 billion, over 2,400 U.S. soldiers (plus 1,144 allied troops) and 388 private military contractors have lost their lives. The USA has also spent $143 billion on reconstruction, $90 billion on Afghan army, police and other security forces, $36 billion for governance and economic development activities.
The war has been even more costly for Afghanistan. This resulted in the death of 50,000 Afghan civilians and nearly 70,000 Afghan security forces, added to that loss of 60,000 Afghan Taliban.
However, war has positive effects too. There has been significant improvement in the literacy rate. There are eight million children of which one third are girls compared to 9,00,000 boys in school in 2001. There have been other improvements like literacy rate(from 12% in 2002 to 35%), life expectancy (40 to 63 years). There has been an increase in other factors like connectivity and decline in the infant mortality rate.

ISSUES WITH PRESENT WITHDRAWAL

There has been change in the goal post of the objective of the US. The goal of the USA in Afghanistan has kept changing with the time. Initially the goal of the US as said by President Bush was to build a stable, strong, effectively governed Afghanistan that won’t degenerate into chaos. During President Barack Obama, this goal was diluted and objective became preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for global terrorism.

Taliban has got legitimacy due to negotiation by the US. Direct negotiation with Afghanistan started during President Donald Trump’s time. The US agreed for Intra-Afghan peace talks with the terrorist group and withdrawal of all foreign military forces from Afghanistan. During the negotiation, Taliban managed to get the U.S. to push the Kabul government to release over 5,000 Taliban cadres in custody. These ended up legitimising the Taliban at the expense of the government in Kabul.
The Taliban has gained considerably since the negotiation started. The locals manning the security posts and checkpoints have just surrendered. From villages and towns, there is already a move towards the cities. This has resulted in the Taliban being reluctant for talks with the government.

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN

Given the present development there are concern regarding future of Afghanistan regarding:

Whether the path of Civil war is certain in Afghanistan due to absence of intra-Afghanistan talks?
What will be the future of the security and unity of Afghanistan?
Whether the withdrawal of US troops was done in haste?

WAYFORWARD

Withdrawal of the US is certain. The event that folds afterwards depends on factors like change in the ideological color of Taliban, presence of United front in Kabul regime. If opportunistic leaders are tempted to strike their own deals with the Taliban, it will only hasten the collapse, and even western funding will dry up.
The last factor which will decide the future of Afghanistan will be the Pakistan factor. Pakistan may still seek strategic depth in Afghanistan or might have realised that a Taliban-dominated Kabul will be a magnet for its own home-grown extremists as well as those from the neighbourhood.

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