What’s in the news?
- When this century ends, India may no longer be a country of a billion, says a projection that appears in the online edition of the Lancet.
- The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal.
Highlights of the projection
- At the current rate of growth, India’s population is likely to peak by 2047 at about 1.61 billion and then decline to 1.03 billion by 2100.
- However, were it to meet UN Sustainable Goal Development targets, the peak would be earlier and see a population decline to 929 million. The sharper fall is due to the assumption that all women globally will have much higher access to contraception and education.
- This scenario will lead to a sharper reduction in the Total Fertility Rate, a metric that shows on average how many children a woman must have to keep replenishing the population. A TFR lower than 2.1 leads to a decline in a country’s population.
- This way, the study projects that world population is expected to peak by 2061 at 9.73 billion and by 2100 reach 8.79 billion.
- India will, however, remain the most populous country. The five largest countries in 2100 (are projected) to be India, Nigeria, China, the U.S. and Pakistan.